The week began with a sharp fall on Dalal Street. The indices tanked in line with global markets. The Nifty just about managed to hold on to the 5,000 mark, ending the session at 5,034, down 101 points. The Sensex shut shop at 16,781, down 336 points. The advance-decline was expectedly poor at 1:4.
Will Nifty revisit 4,800?
Nischal Maheshwari, Head of Research, Edelweiss, is not sure if the Nifty will re-test 4,800 levels in June or July. But he is confident that the markets will remain volatile for the next 3-6 months. "This is a kind of situation we had seen in the US, a similar kind of situation is there is Europe today. If a Hungary kind of a situation happens, it will create panic among the market and that could be fuel to see the market going around to even 4700-4800 levels."
Sell is Technical Analyst Ashwani Gujral call. "The markets may go down slowly or may go down in a fast manner. But 5,150-5,200 is sort of becoming a ceiling because bull markets are based on confidence and conviction. They are not based on headline risk and people feeling uneasy about what could happen overnight. Today, the Nifty has held 5,000 but we will have to see for how long."
But Apurva Shah of Prabhudas Lilladher expects the markets to trade rangebound in June. "The markets are likely to move somewhere around these levels itself. I do not see any major gains from the market in the coming weeks. I do not see any major buying emerging over the next 30-45 days."
Global cues may hurt markets going forward, said Vibhav Kapoor of IL&FS. "We saw a very good bounceback from 4800, which is the bottom end of the range, last week and have had a good recovery after that. As of now that range of 4850-5400 stands. At the same time, the global situation is getting a little bit more nervous than it was earlier. So if there is a global meltdown, then there's always the risk of this range breaking on the downside. I would say the chances of that have increased a little bit over the past few weeks. But till that range breaks or does not break, you are still in that 4,800-5,400 band."
Will 2010 be a year of consolidation for markets?
Will weak global cues break the back of Indian markets or will the indices show resilience? Jyotivardhan Jaipuria of DSP Merrill Lynch sees the markets consolidating in 2010. "We had a great rally last year and this year we are going to really do nothing much on the index, probably just move around in a narrow range, which is good for the market in the longer-term. We will be in one of the narrowest ranges we have had for the market in a long time. The move this year has been just 2,000 points or something."
Nilesh Shah, Deputy MD, ICICI Prudential AMC, sees overseas inflows continuing over the next couple of months. "We have a fairly large variety of offshore investors. During this entire downfall, the strength and the stability which exchange traded funds (ETFs) have provided has actually surprised me. Some of the long-only investors are actually looking at corrections to buy. At every dip, they are seen accumulating stocks. So except for momentum or hedge funds, which badly have to redeem because of redemption or market calls, we will actually end up seeing quality investment coming in the next couple of months."
No comments:
Post a Comment